Who’s Paying the Farmer, a Foresight Reverie

This white paper introduces a provocative vision of supermarket pricing structured in tiers—from zero VAT and maximum farmer payments for the most sustainable, nutritious products on the left, to high VAT and minimal farmer support for the least eco-friendly items on the right. It poses three central questions concerning system feasibility, measurable gains in consumer health (in QALYs) and environmental impact (in Mt CO2e/N2Oe), and the pathway from today’s model to this utopian scenario. The author argues that traditional forecasting cannot capture such radical change and that strategic foresight—with scenario building, stakeholder engagement, and the ‘cone of plausibility’ framework—is essential. The paper uses the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund to illustrate how foresight methods can map plausible futures and prepare policies for a fairer, healthier food system.