Analysis of the spatial distribution of organic farming in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region: developing a methodology for observation and forecasting

Analysing the spread of organic farming and its determining factors is a key challenge in developing scenarios for the future of organic farming that take into account all the factors limiting or facilitating conversions and their sustainability. In order to underpin various scenarios for the development of organic farming in the face of environmental and market challenges, a study combining econometrics and geostatistics has been launched in the PACA region. The approach comprises three stages: the first stage involves compiling, over a period of around twenty years, a longitudinal spatial database on producers and distributors of certified organic products. This database is georeferenced at plot level. The next step is to statistically analyse the trends and determinants of the spread of organic farming over time and space. Finally, this knowledge will be used to develop scenarios for the future development of organic production. The interim results presented in this paper are based on a municipal-level georeferencing of producers and distributors in 2007 and on the results of a comprehensive survey of all distributors carried out in 2008 in the PACA region.