Report to estimate the potential yield loss and associated direct and indirect economic impact

This deliverable reports direct and indirect economic impacts associated with Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) in European olives and Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CaLsol) in European carrots. For Xf, we simulated the potential future spread beyond the current extent based on climatic suitability modelling and an assumption of radial range expansion and logistic growth. For the direct impacts, the economic model computes impact by accounting for discounted foregone profits and losses in investment on the olive farm level. For the indirect impacts, a partial equilibrium model was defined on the European olive oil market to estimate changes to consumer and producer welfare from the reduction in supply and the associated increase in price. For CaLsol, a partial budgeting model was developed, and a questionnaire distributed. The questionnaire aimed at gathering crucial information that is absent from the scientific literature. However, responses to the questionnaire are lacking. In turn, no European-wide modelling efforts could be undertaken. The report summarizes the insights obtained from the literature and informal feedback from the experts.