Impact of climate change scenarios on tree species distribution at the scale of small forest massifs

In this study, Philippe Dreyfus examines how IPCC climate change scenarios may alter tree species distribution within small forest massifs of the Mediterranean hinterland. Building on previous bioclimatic stratification and defined altitudinal ranges for each species, the research applies a conventional analogy between warming and upward altitudinal shifts to model future potential habitat areas under three greenhouse gas emission pathways. The results reveal significant and variable shifts in suitable habitats. Although the method is simple and has limitations, its purpose is to highlight data gaps, raise awareness, guide progressive forest management adaptation, and propose directions for further research under climatic uncertainty.