Quantitative Risk Analysis to Improve Cattle Farm Biosecurity

This document presents a quantitative risk analysis model to assess the probability of pathogen introduction on cattle farms through animal purchases and evaluates the effectiveness of specific biosecurity measures in reducing this risk. The model is based on farm survey data, scientific literature, and existing databases, focusing on diseases like IBR. Key measures include testing animals pre-transport, using dedicated vehicles, quarantining new arrivals, and disinfecting facilities. Results show that implementing multiple measures can reduce introduction risk from 6% to 2%. The model supports evidence-based biosecurity decisions and is designed for calibration on real farms and extension to other pathogens and livestock species.